尹靖华,顾国达

• 1:浙江大学经济学院

摘要(Abstract)：

近十年来我国粮食净进口量逐渐增加,粮食安全对贸易途径的倚重程度不断加大,但近年来国际粮食价格危机引发的多个国家贸易隔离程度加剧,对我国的粮食安全是一个重大挑战。文章在Kym Anderson等(2013)模型的基础上剖析了国际粮食价格波动对贸易政策的影响机理,运用固定效应面板模型估计了国际粮食价格波动对中国及其主要粮食贸易伙伴国贸易政策的影响效应。结果表明,1992~2011年间,国际小麦、稻米和玉米价格波动程度增大1%,分别引起贸易隔离程度增大1.64%、1.60%及0.45%;与饲料粮相比口粮的国际价格波动引起更大的贸易隔离。因此,应从国内、区域和全球层面采取相应措施。

关键词(KeyWords)： 粮食安全;价格波动;粮食贸易政策

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金项目(09BJY072)的阶段性成果

作者(Author): 尹靖华,顾国达

DOI: 10.13687/j.cnki.gjjmts.2015.02.002

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